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The Elo ratings have been the most popular performance evaluation and prediction metric in board games, however some enthusiasts already took it to apply to international football competition. Here we attempt to evaluate team performances during a season or a postseason based on their results.

The teams start with initial rating of 2000 and have it change with every result. One of the differences with chess is that unlike chess, NHL hockey game is not zero-sum. Usually the teams split game points 2-0, but in case of overtime wins, the points are split 2-1. In spirit of the tradition, and given that the equal teams are expected to split a game 1-1, the overtime losing team has its rating recalculated as if it tied the game. Naturally, it leads to ratings' inflation, but since the ratings are reset at the beginning of each season, the inflation does not carry over.

Elo ratings are indicative of streaks. For two teams with equal or close number of points, a higher Elo rating will indicate a recent successful streak of results and vice versa.

Read more about the Elo calculations on our dedicated help page.

Elo ratings are calculated on the basis of boxscore reports and are available for years 1987 onwards.

? Team Elo ratings calculation each season

The Elo ratings have been the most popular performance evaluation and prediction metric in board games, however some enthusiasts already took it to apply to international football competition. Here we attempt to evaluate team performances during a season or a postseason based on their results.

The teams start with initial rating of 2000 and have it change with every result. One of the differences with chess is that unlike chess, NHL hockey game is not zero-sum. Usually the teams split game points 2-0, but in case of overtime wins, the points are split 2-1. In spirit of the tradition, and given that the equal teams are expected to split a game 1-1, the overtime losing team has its rating recalculated as if it tied the game. Naturally, it leads to ratings' inflation, but since the ratings are reset at the beginning of each season, the inflation does not carry over. We only begin to calculate changes in the Elo ratings after five games in the season per team.


Season
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